This week, contributing writer, Richard Cartwright shares with us some of his thoughts about Palm as we get ready for their CES press event on Thursday.

Palm’s At Bat

The blogosphere is buzzing with Palm’s upcoming CES announcement regarding the new Nova OS and new hardware. I for one am just glad that Palm bit the bullet and is announcing at CES. The timing could not have been much better as it was during a slow tech news time and has generated a lot of buzz for Palm. Most of it is of the “last chance” sports metaphor variety but buzz is buzz and frankly, it’s the truth. This is Palm’s last chance to get back into the mobile smart phone game. The bases are loaded, bottom of the 9th, two outs and Palm is three runs behind, the “runs” being iPhone, RIM and Android.

Palm, like a lot of other vendors, never saw the iPhone coming, as evidenced by Collagen’s infamous quote about how hard it is to put a smart phone together. I strongly suspect that a large part of the Nova OS delay was based on a realization that the bar had been raised by the iPhone and Nova had to clear the higher bar. Nova has to have a better ease of use than the iPhone. Nova has to have a full set of apps working out of the box, especially PIM apps, multimedia and a browser. Nova also has to be open to third party developers with a clear process as to what it takes to get to play on Nova and a willingness to allow those apps to directly compete with the Palm produced apps. Finally, Nova has to have cut and paste. If Palm does this, they will address both many of the sore points iPhone users have and the things people like about the iPhone.

Palm has to provide a rich multimedia experience that is not tied to a proprietary standard. I am betting that Palm is going to use Active Sync in a big way for the Windows side and probably Missing Sync on the Mac side. This would let Palm tie into existing Windows and Mac programs such as Media Player or third party solutions using existing standards rather than shoehorning into a proprietary solution. If Palm felt the need to partner with somebody, Amazon is sitting out there with its cheap DRM -free music and videos. At this stage, I frankly doubt it, given the Amazon/Android relationship, but one never knows. Supporting the experience needs to be a iphone-sized touch screen, removable storage, and A2DP Bluetooth support, along with a standard headphone jack that does not take a dongle to use.

Palm could also turn Apple’s PIMphobia to its advantage by offering a strong PIM solution out of the box, another source of discomfort with the iPhone. The solution needs to be fully Outlook and Google compatible and fully capable of importing legacy data from prior versions of the Palm OS. Additionally there needs to be a strong email program. Visual voice mail and the dedicated ringer switch would be winners as well. The browser experience has to be at least equal to the iPhone with flash support. The new phone must support GPS and a Bluetooth wireless keyboard. Speaking of keyboards, Palm could go far with the idea of a swivel touch screen that exposes a Treo standard keypad that would both allow for screen real estate and capitalize on the one handed ease of use and two thumb typing that many Treo and RIM users are comfortable with.

A lot of the issues Palm needs to address with the iPhone users will also seduce at least a few Blackberry users. Decent push email, multimedia and a browser worth having should lure those who went to RIM because they needed good email and a keyboard and were willing to overlook the abysmal browser experience and lack of third party apps. It goes without saying that the Nova hardware will have to have Wi-Fi and a 3-5 megapixel camera along with this usual 3g phone suspects. WiMax and LTE support would be nice, but I do not see it in the product yet, particularly as I suspect the hardware spec was frozen before the WiMax deal was firmed up. However, I am almost certain that Nova will be able to support multiple radio standards or Palm learned nothing from Garnet and its inability to support 3g GSM standards. Palm is also positioned to capitalize on the RIM problems with the Storm and the lack of Wi-Fi.

Android is the current darling of the mobile technoratti but even its strongest supporters freely admit that it’s not ready for prime time. In addition to being open source, Android has the backing of Goggle, a somewhat larger company than Palm. That said, if Palm can deliver a rock solid program with a good out of box experience, Android could become the victim of its own flexibility. Why? To paraphrase a Nokia corporate leader, Palm in the end has four customers in the US: AT&T, Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile. For better or worse, the North American mobile phone market runs on subsidized contracts. For Palm to make the revenue it needs, it has to get love from at least two and ideally all four carriers. The iPhone has plowed the field for Wi-Fi and some openness. While the carriers are not fans of third-party applications, I suspect that if Nova is a hit, the carriers might well prefer it to the open and easily hacked Android system. Embracing Palm would give the carriers a closed OS in the sense it could not be easily hacked for VoIP, for example, but open to useful programs. Further, it would give the carriers something to counterbalance Apple on one end and RIM on the other.

Palm needs to have outstanding syncing capability both to the cloud and the desktop. As stated before, I suspect Palm will use existing Windows and Apple systems as much as possible both to minimize conflicts and to stick with standards. Finally, the question everyone probably has: how do you power this prodigy? I predict a removable battery for starters coupled with some outstanding power management. Again, as long as Palm battery life is at least as good as the current iPhone, that should be enough, particularly since the Android phone by all reports can’t get through a single day without recharging. I would say an OLED screen could address power consumption, but that brings us to cost. Palm has to undercut the iPhone cost yet still have decent profit margins. I would do this via removable storage. The Palm phone could have 4 or even 8GB on board and removable storage to the user’s content. This not only reduces cost but gives the user the freedom to increase storage as much as the media allows.

As Palm goes to bat, it has to have rock steady useful software and hardware that addresses the dissatisfaction of iPhone, Blackberry and Android users if it’s going to hit to the “fat middle”. Here is hoping the users in Palm’s outfield stands get a chance to catch the home run ball.

With Palm’s Consumer Electronics Show (CES) invitation-only press event less than a week away, I figured it was time to make some predictions about what the Centro maker might unveil.

Palm OS “Nova”

I fully expect Palm CEO Ed Colligan to unveil their next generation mobile operating system, codename “Nova.” Company officials have stated that the next generation products will be “game changing” and now it is time to see if the proof is in the pudding. The road from Palm OS 5 to what we’ve called “Palm OS II” for so many years is finally coming to an end.

Nova will have, thanks to its Linux origins, the modern foundation upon which new applications can be built. Nova will have the ability to run multiple applications at once, address more memory than previous Palm OS devices, and will be able to support and use multiple radio technologies including: Bluetooth and A2DP, Wi-Fi 802.11b/g/n, GPS, and the HSDPA and EVDO cellular radio standards. The real question is whether or not Nova will include support for the fledgling WiMAX network being rolled out by Sprint and Clearwire. I also expect that Nova will be able to support more screen resolutions than the standard Palm OS 160×160 and 320×320 formats. Additionally, I expect that Nova will also be able to run legacy Palm OS 3/4/5 applications in their own memory space to preserve customer’s software investments.

The technical specifications for Nova, by themselves, won’t be able to carry Palm back to a mobile computing leadership position. For Palm to be successful, Nova has to mesh with the next generation of hardware that Palm will be releasing in 2009. I don’t believe that Palm will introduce any new smartphones this week. Rather, I expect Palm will focus almost exclusively on the software. We’ll learn about Nova’s new user interface, it’s multitasking capabilities, and the core applications that will ship pre-installed on new devices. I expect Palm to show off their revamped PIM applications, web browser and email client. An intuitive interface with Palm’s easy to use applications will help drive adoption of their new platform.

I also expect that Palm will release a preview software development kit (SDK) and software simulator to professional and hobbyist developers so they can begin to develop new software for Nova and update existing software so that it can run natively under Nova.

Information Synchronization

Keeping with the software theme, I expect Palm to announce the replacements for Palm Desktop and the HotSync Manager. As I have stated in past 1SRC editorials and podcasts, I believe that USB drivers for data synchronization will be replaced by an Internet cloud solution. Your data will live on your computer and your Palm device and the data will be synchronized through the Internet. The seamless integration between desktop, mobile device, and Palm’s data center should reduce the complaints about not having 64-bit Windows Vista drivers, Transport monitor errors on the Mac, and other common problems that people have when trying to synchronize their phones.

Launch Partners

Lastly, I expect that Palm will have some of their Nova device launch partners on hand to talk about what third-party software will be ready to go live when Nova devices start shipping.

At the end of the day, it will be of utmost importance that Palm not only deliver on the promise of People, Design, and Platform, but to deliver on an entire Palm ecosystem. Software a lone is not enough to lift Palm out of their current rut. Palm needs to demonstrate that they have innovative software that differentiates them from everyone else. Palm also needs to have sleek and functional hardware choices that appeal to consumers and “prosumers” as well as corporate customers. And, finally, Palm needs to ensure that they have a strong developer community to help write applications for Nova. This includes a robust development environment, useful documentation, and a certification and support network to help ensure that applications run smoothly on the new operating system.

There will be a lot of people hanging on every word that is said at Palm’s CES press event this year. The media, investment analysts, and the Palm user community will be looking to Palm to produce the next big thing and prove that the company that brought us the Palm Pilot and Treo can still be a leader in the mobile computing space.

What do you think Palm will be showing the world on January 8th? Let us know by clicking the Comments link below.